India’s CPI & CFPI Trends – June 2025: A Data-Driven Analysis

Overview

This analysis delves into India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for June 2025, covering headline inflation, disparities between urban and rural areas, state-level dynamics, group/sub-group movements, and key item price fluctuations.

Key Highlights

• Headline Inflation (CPI-General) for June 2025 (YoY) was 2.10%, declining by 72 basis points from May and marking the lowest since January 2019.
• Food Inflation (CFPI) sharply fell to –1.06%, its lowest since January 2019, primarily driven by declines in vegetables, pulses, cereals, sugar, milk, and spices.
• Rural vs Urban Inflation: Rural CPI inflation was 1.72% vs. urban at 2.56%; rural CFPI at –0.92% versus urban at –1.22%.
• Housing, Education, and Health Inflation: Recorded at 3.24%, 4.37%, and 4.43%, respectively.
• Top States (pop. > 50 Lakh) with highest combined CPI inflation in June 2025: Kerala (6.71%), Punjab (5.42%), and Jammu & Kashmir & Ladakh (5.66%).

1. Year-on-Year Inflation Rate Based on CPI

Insight: The combined CPI inflation decreased by 0.72 percentage points, primarily due to favourable base effects and easing food prices.

2. All-India Inflation Rates: CPI vs CFPI

Insight: Food prices led the disinflation trend, with CFPI plunging over 200 basis points in a single month.

3. State-Level Inflation (Population > 50 Lakhs)

Insight: Higher inflation in southern and northern states; the national average remains moderate.

4. Group & Sub-group CPI/CFPI Movements: May vs June 2025

Insight: Vegetables experienced a sharp index jump; overall food & beverages index rose modestly.

5. Inflation Rates by Group & Sub-group (June 2025)

Insight: Personal care costs surged by approximately 15%, whereas food inflation turned mildly negative.

6. State-Level CPI Movements (May vs June 2025)

Insight: Kerala saw the largest MoM increase; other large states experienced more modest shifts.

7. Key Item Inflation (May & June 2025)

Insight: Volatile commodities like coconut oil and vegetables caused significant swings; onions and tomatoes experienced deep deflation.

Disclaimer

This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a professional before making decisions.