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Josh July Monthly Nifty Indices View 2025

Lesson 7/21 | Study Time: 20 Min

Course: NIFTY-50 Daily Tracker: Stay Updated on the Indian Stock Market Index

Josh July Monthly Nifty Indices View 2025

Coverage:

What we discussed Amazing April
What happened in Amazing April
What to expect in Josh July
Nifty Pivot Points.
+ve broader indices for the coming months.
-ve broader indices for the Coming Months:
Fundamentals
Nifty Intrinsic Value as per current earnings
Schedule Of Meetings

Indices View Nifty

What We Discussed in Amazing April: Nifty was 23519

Considering Nifty making lower highs and lower lows for the 2nd quarter in a row with the overall fall of 4312 points, but Nifty with the “doji” candle at the closing of the quarter suggesting in-decisiveness during the fall. Considering the “doji” candle, the most important level to track not only this month but for the next 3 months should be the high of the previous quarter and that is 24227. Any recovery till 24227 should be treated as the normal bounce back and profit booking attempt must seen here. Strong recovery “x” phase for 5 months timewise and price wise 25023 or even 25352 could be seen if & only if Nifty could move beyond 24227 else bias could be flat to -ve. Nifty’s inability to move beyond 24227 can drag Nifty back towards 22366 form where again buying can be expected. Overall, on the lower side still the target of 21716 stays pending which is the strongest support in near term. Hence the level to track for next 3 months should be 24227 for a decisive move ahead. Anyway, stick to the rules: Buy during falls and avoid buying during rally.

What happened till Joyful June: Nifty is 25517

As discussed, NIfty initially during April fell till 21744 (we expected 21714), but strong buying was seen at 6 months of close below previous month. Nifty not only closed above previous month high but was able to close above previous quarter high 24227 in April suggesting strong up move recovery. Nifty’s ability to close above 24227 which was previous quarter high helped recover further towards 24458 during the month of April, 25116 in the month of May and 25669 in last month June. We saw Nifty falling for 6 months with the damage of 4533 points which is 17.3% damage, However during the last 3 months Nifty was able to recover 87% of the total fall with the recovery of 3925 points. Anyway, buying has been recommended during the fall near 21716 and now can book some 5% profits near the previous lifetime high level of 26277. Nifty last month made the higher high higher low and the higher close for the 4th month in a row.

What to expect in Josh July: Nifty is 25517

Considering Nifty at 87% retracement level making the higher high higher low, the most important level to track this month should be 100% recovery level of 26277. The +ve bais we saw for the last 3 months could even continue further for the 4th month in a row towards 25966 making the new recovery high to even previous life time high level of 26227. Selling pressure should be seen at 25966 to 26277. Nift’s strength to move and sustain above 26277 can help Nifty rally further towards 26416 also which is the new lifetime high. However, Nifty’s failure to move and sustain above 26277 can drag Nifty again into temporary 2-3 months correction towards 23574. Hence the level to track this month should be 26277 for the decisive move ahead. Anyway, stick to the rules: Buy during falls and avoid buying during rally.

Nifty Josh June Pivot Points: 25220

Resistance: 25966 | 26417 | 27162

Support: 24770 | 24024 | 23574

+ve broader indices for the Coming Months: Nifty_50, Nifty_100_200_500, Nifty_Bank, Commodities, Consumption, CPSE, Energy, Fin_Services, Infra, Metal, PsuBank, Private_bank, Services

-ve broader indices for the Coming Months:

*Nifty Bank:* CMP: 56949

As assumed the target of 57546 as just been triggered last month.

*USD INR:* CMP: 85.70

The important level to track this month should be 85.25. If The USDINR falls below 85.25 then the fall further towards 82.7 could be seen which would be highly beneficial for Indian Markets.

BitCoin: CMP: 107171 (No Value, only Trading)

New Buying can be done during the whole range of 75621 to 42838 all with the target of 141187 in the next 12-15 months.

GDP: Demand in Uptick after 3 Muted Quarters.

Inflation: At 6 Years’ low best time

Fundamentals: fy24 Revenue growth and Profit Growth

SALES_ PROFIT_ Margin & VALUATIONS:

Based on the provided chart showing the Nifty 500 Sales and Profit Growth trends, here are the key insights for investors:

FY22 (Post-COVID Recovery):

Sales Growth: 26%
Profit Growth: 50%
The post-COVID recovery witnessed strong growth in both sales and profits due to pent-up demand and a low base effect. This period contributed to a significant market rally.

FY23 (Impact of Global Events):

Sales Growth: 21%
Profit Growth: 6%
Inflationary pressures due to the Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacted profit margins. Despite moderate sales growth, profits were muted, causing market corrections during this period.

FY24 (Recovery and Growth):

Sales Growth: 8%
Profit Growth: 29%
Recovery in sales and profitability led to renewed investor confidence and a market rally.

FY25 (Current Year Trends):

Sales Growth: 9%
Profit Growth: 4%

Sales Growth: 10%
Profit Growth: 5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.

Sales Growth: 7.9%
Profit Growth: 5.5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.

fy_25:

Sales Growth: 7.2%
Profit Growth: 8.3%
Muted sales growth but improving profit trends are seen. This reflects demand still muted, but profits improvement are seen majorly due to decreasing-interest rates & inflation.

Fundamental Data: Expensive		NIFTY_50_FY24

REVENUE GROWTH	6.2%	Muted (15% Required)
NET PROFIT GROWTH	5%	Muted (15% Required)
PE	22.97	Fairvalue (21 Fair PE)
PB	3.7	Average (Fair BV is 3X)
DIVIDEND YIELD	1.24	Fair Yield (FairDiv_Yd: 1.5)