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Q2_fy_26 Quarterly Nifty Indices View 2025

Lesson 21/21 | Study Time: 15 Min

Course: NIFTY-50 Daily Tracker: Stay Updated on the Indian Stock Market Index

Quarterly Indices View

Indices & major Indices report by: PROFIT FROM IT

What happened in Q1_fy26: Nifty is 25517

After the 2 quarters of lower high lower low & the lower close in a row last quarter was the 1st quarter for Nifty with the higher high higher low and the higher close. During the previous 3 quarters we saw a slow down in GDP growth and its impact was seen in the market. We saw Nifty in the correction mode from Q3_fy25 to Q4 _ fy25 with the damage of 4533 points which was 17.3% damage. Improvements in demand was visible even in the market during Q1_fy26 quarter as we saw Nifty making higher high higher low and the higher close with the strong recovery back retracing the damage by 3935 points which is 87% recovery of the fall just in a single quarter. Last quarter good volumes were seen during recovery suggesting buying at lower levels.

What to expect in Q2_fy26: Nifty is 25517

Considering improvement in demand and good early monsoon, the +ve bias we saw last quarter could even continue further for the 2nd quarter in a row towards 26876 which would be the new lifetime high soon. Further the recovery could be seen further even towards 28335 or 30801 in the next few quarters. The -ve trend in the current situation before Nifty makes the new lifetime high of 26876 could again re-enter temporarily for 2-3 quarters if & only if Nifty fails to move and close above 26278 previous lifetime high on the quarterly basis, else bias could be flat to +ve. The correction again towards 22951 could be seen only in such a case if Nifty resists moving beyond 26278. Hence the level to track for this quarter should be 26278 closely for the decisive move ahead. Anyway, stick to the rules: Buy during falls and avoid buying during rally. As you bought during past fall near 22000 can book some profits near previous life time high of 26278.

Nifty Q1_fy26 Pivot Points: 24310

Resistance: 26876 | 28235 | 30801

Support: 22951 | 20385 | 19026

+ve broader indices for the Coming Months: Nifty_Bank, Commodities, Consumption, CPSE, Energy, Fin_Services, Infra, Metal, MNC, Value_50, PSE, PSUBank, Private_bank, Services

-ve broader indices for the Coming Months:

*Nifty Bank:* CMP: 51565

Buying can be done near 51175 with the 2 year target of 68691.

*USD INR:* CMP: 85.72

*Crude:* CMP: 64.92

GDP: Demand in Uptick after 3 Muted Quarters.

Inflation: At 6 Years’ low best time

Fundamentals: fy24 Revenue growth and Profit Growth

SALES_ PROFIT_ Margin & VALUATIONS:

Based on the provided chart showing the Nifty 500 Sales and Profit Growth trends, here are the key insights for investors:

FY22 (Post-COVID Recovery):

Sales Growth: 26%
Profit Growth: 50%
The post-COVID recovery witnessed strong growth in both sales and profits due to pent-up demand and a low base effect. This period contributed to a significant market rally.

FY23 (Impact of Global Events):

Sales Growth: 21%
Profit Growth: 6%
Inflationary pressures due to the Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacted profit margins. Despite moderate sales growth, profits were muted, causing market corrections during this period.

FY24 (Recovery and Growth):

Sales Growth: 8%
Profit Growth: 29%
Recovery in sales and profitability led to renewed investor confidence and a market rally.

FY25 (Current Year Trends):

Sales Growth: 9%
Profit Growth: 4%

Sales Growth: 10%
Profit Growth: 5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.

Sales Growth: 7.9%
Profit Growth: 5.5%
Muted sales growth and declining profit trends are evident. This reflects challenging market conditions, potentially due to high-interest rates, inflation, or subdued demand, resulting in market corrections.

fy_25:

Sales Growth: 7.2%
Profit Growth: 8.3%
Muted sales growth but improving profit trends are seen. This reflects demand still muted, but profits improvement are seen majorly due to decreasing-interest rates & inflation.

Fundamental Data: Expensive		NIFTY_50_FY24

REVENUE GROWTH	6.2%	Muted (15% Required)
NET PROFIT GROWTH	5%	Muted (15% Required)
PE	22.97	Fairvalue (21 Fair PE)
PB	3.7	Average (Fair BV is 3X)
DIVIDEND YIELD	1.24	Fair Yield (FairDiv_Yd: 1.5)