CMP: โน12,542 | Period: AprilโJune 2025
From the Earnings Concall:
Industry Trends: Domestic PV industry declined 1.4% YoY; SUV share crossed 55%, MPVs at 11%, hatchbacks fell to 21% share from 46% in FY19.
Export Leadership: Maruti commanded 47.1% of Indiaโs total PV exports, with 37.4% YoY export growth.
Safety First: All-new Dzire became Indiaโs first sedan with 5-star Bharat NCAP rating; Baleno scored 4-star. 97% of volumes now come with six airbags.
SUV Milestones: Grand Vitara fastest mid-SUV to hit 3 lakh sales; Fronx fastest SUV to reach 1 lakh exports in 25 months.
Sustainability Initiatives: Solar capacity at 78.2 MWp, aiming for 319 MW by FY31 (85% renewable electricity share).
Logistics Efficiency: 24.3% of dispatches via rail in FY25; target 35% by FY31.
Domestic Sales โ 4,30,889 units (-4.5% YoY)
Mini: 19,522 (-36.6%) โ ๏ธ
Compact: 1,77,270 (-6.3%) โ ๏ธ
UVs: 1,61,868 (-0.8%)
Vans: 33,105 (-2.0%)
LCV: 8,510 (+7.1%) ๐
Sales to other OEMs: +18.8% ๐
Exports โ 96,972 units (+37.4% YoY) ๐
Strong performance in Japan (now 2nd largest export market).
ROE: ~14.8%
ROCE: ~19.5%
EPS (TTM): โน462.24
P/E (CMP โน12,542): ~27x
Volume Growth: Domestic -4.5%, Exports +37.4%
Market Share Change: SUV & MPV gaining share, hatchback declining.
Dealer Inventory: ~33 days (well-managed).
Near-Term (Next 1โ2 Quarters)
Expect improvement during festive season; rural demand holding up ๐พ.
Two new SUV launches (one EV, one ICE) expected to boost volumes.
Margins may remain under pressure due to commodity & forex headwinds.
Full Year Estimates (Based on Current Trend & 4Q Average)
Sales Growth: ~7%
Profit Margin: ~5%
Profit Growth: ~9.3%
Long-Term (FY26โFY30)
Strong export expansion (100+ countries).
Higher EV penetration; hybrid & CNG to remain important for compliance and affordability.
Solar & rail initiatives to improve cost efficiency.
Positives ๐
โ
Market leader in exports with global expansion potential.
โ
Strong product pipeline in SUV & EV segments.
โ
Improving sustainability footprint (solar, rail logistics).
โ
Well-managed dealer inventory & strong rural presence.
Negatives โ ๏ธ
โ ๏ธ Domestic sales volume decline, especially in mini & compact cars.
โ ๏ธ Margin pressure from commodities, forex, and new plant costs.
โ ๏ธ Industry demand still sluggish; high reliance on SUV growth.
We maintain a Cautiously Optimistic stance. While Maruti remains a long-term structural leader in Indian PVs and is building a strong global presence, margin pressures and weak domestic demand warrant near-term caution.
For long-term investors: Gradual accumulation on dips is preferred.
Short-term traders: Monitor festive season sales & margin trends closely.
Disclosure: This analysis is provided solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence before making investment decisions.