CMP: โน749 | Sector: Wedding & Celebration Wear | Market Cap: ~โน18,000 Cr+
Wedding Season Boost: Rebound in wedding dates compared to Q1 FY25 drove 23.2% YoY growth in customer sales.
Strong SSG: Same-store sales growth at +17.6% YoY, driven by better footfalls & higher conversions.
Category Wins:
Rajwada Collection for grooms performing well.
Mohey (womenโs brand) outpacing company average in growth.
Twamev expanding premium segment presence with flagship opening in Mumbai.
Diwas preparing for festive push with e-commerce focus.
Regional Recovery: Andhra Pradesh & Telangana bounced back strongly, leading growth in Q1.
Digital Push: Aggressive influencer marketing & omni-channel integration improving reach.
Segmental Performance (Retail Sales by Customers)
Total: โน4,057 Cr (+23.2% YoY)
SSSG: +17.6% YoY
EPS: โน2.89 (vs โน2.57 LY)
ROE & ROCE: Industry-leading (exact quarterly not disclosed, FY25 ROCE ~68.7%)
P/E: ~46x (CMP โน749, TTM EPS ~โน16.3) โ premium valuation.
Margins: Still among the highest in apparel retail despite dip.
Volume Growth: Majority of growth from volume, with slight ASP increase.
Pricing: No discount policy maintained for Manyavar brand.
Channel Mix: EBO-led expansion with selective SIS & e-commerce scale-up.
Inventory Management: Automated replenishment system at pincode level aiding efficiency.
Past 4-quarter trend (Sales / Profit / Margin):
FY25 Sales Growth: ~+1%
FY25 Profit Growth: ~-6%
FY25 Margin: 28%
Considering Q1 FY26 performance:
Sales Growth (FY26E): ~+9% (wedding season aiding H1, cautious H2 outlook)
Profit Margins (FY26E): ~25% (higher marketing costs offsetting scale benefits)
Profit Growth (FY26E): ~-2%
Near-Term (1โ2 Quarters):
Expect strong festive season contribution (Q3 focus).
Continued recovery in AP & Telangana positive for sales.
Gross additions in stores at 8โ10%, but with closures of underperforming outlets.
Long-Term (3โ5 Years):
Strong moat in wedding wear, premiumization via Twamev, and festive segment expansion via Diwas.
Mohey well-placed to tap womenโs ethnic wear growth.
Risk factors: Weak consumer sentiment in mid-premium discretionary segment, rising lease costs, competition from unorganized players.
Positives โ
Industry leader with strong brand recall.
High margins & ROCE in apparel retail.
Diversified portfolio targeting multiple customer segments.
Proven asset-light model with strong cash flows.
Negatives โ ๏ธ
Margins dipped due to higher marketing spend (25% PAT margin vs 26.1% LY).
Valuations expensive at ~45X PE.
Consumer sentiment in mid-premium segment remains weak.
Dependence on wedding calendar seasonality.
Investment Stance: Hold with Cautious Optimism โ A quality franchise, but better entry points may arise if valuations correct or macro sentiment improves.
This analysis is provided solely for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should perform their own due diligence before making investment decisions.